Wall Street’s “Come to Jesus” Moment Is Upon Us

Next week is going to hurt. 

For years, I’ve avoided traveling the dreaded I-95 corridor on the Fourth of July at all costs. 

You would too if you’ve ever felt the painful experience of an eight-hour trip between Baltimore and Philly — a trip that should’ve taken less than two hours if traffic had cooperated. 

But at least there are two consolations from this upcoming excruciating journey. 

First, I won’t be alone. 

When you’re packed bumper-to-bumper for hours on end on the baking concrete, there’s a collective commiseration we all develop. Misery makes the sojourn more palatable if it's shared with strangers. 

But it’s the second bit of solace I’ll take as I listen to the symphony of horns blaring around me. 

You see, every jammed-up stretch of highway you encounter over the weekend should bring a smile to your face because it means your reward is coming down the pipeline.

Why?

Well, because it means demand is back. 

You may not think the oil market is tight right now, but things are going to get a lot more interesting down the back stretch of 2023.

Wall Street’s Come-to-Jesus Moment

There’s only one thing right now that can stop the oil rally later this year: recession. 

Let me be clear when I tell you that the biggest obstacle right now for an oil price rally is the horrifying R-word that brings nightmares to young economists. 

In fact, a major recession is just about the only thing that can curb the bullish sentiment starting to seep into the oil market right now. 

That makes sense, doesn’t it?  After all, recessions lead to massive declines in oil demand, putting an immense amount of pressure on prices. 

And make no mistake, dear reader: Wall Street has been telling us all year that one hell of a recession is coming.

Even the Fed was warning us all back in April that the banking crisis would guide the U.S. into a mild recession. 

So we waited… and waited. 

But then we noticed something peculiar. 

In the face of rising interest rates and news pundits shouting the word "recession" every chance they get, it didn’t happen. 

Quite the opposite, actually. 

It turns out the economy is a little more resilient than most people expected. Last May, U.S. employers added 339,000 jobs, with more than 1.5 million workers having gained jobs so far this year. 

Yet it was more than just employment that signaled a stronger-than-expected economy. Consumer spending rose 0.8% in April, year over year, which was a huge leap compared with the 0.1% increases we saw in February and March. 

With the debt ceiling debacle officially in the rearview mirror (for now), Americans are back to dishing out their cash… and that includes summer travel. 

Now Wall Street is starting to agree. 

Both JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs recently lowered their odds of a recession. 

A recent report out of Goldman lowered its prediction that the U.S. will hit a recession over the next 12 months to 25%.

Meanwhile, Americans are taking to the road more and more.

The EIA gave us even more bullish news yesterday in its weekly oil report, which showed petroleum consumption averaged 20.2 million barrels per day last week; that’s a 1.3% jump over last year. 

More importantly, gasoline demand averaged 9.6 million barrels per day last week — up 3.8% compared with a year ago. 

This may not bode well for our patience on I-95 this weekend, but we’ll be smiling nonetheless.

However, the reason for our joy goes much deeper than higher consumption right now. 

That’s because most people don’t understand the situation that has been quietly developing in the U.S. oil sector… one that has the potential to make the supply/demand fundamentals far tighter than anyone on Wall Street could possibly imagine. 

Wall Street may finally be coming to terms that a recession is less likely than it first thought, but I think the bullish case for oil is bigger than that. 

Next week, I’m going to tell you why you should still be shopping for oil stocks right now.

Until next time,

Keith Kohl

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A true insider in the technology and energy markets, Keith’s research has helped everyday investors capitalize from the rapid adoption of new technology trends and energy transitions. Keith connects with hundreds of thousands of readers as the Managing Editor of Energy & Capital, as well as the investment director of Angel Publishing’s Energy Investor and Technology and Opportunity.

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